Tim Walz: Kamala Harris’ Midwest bet

The US presidential race has entered a critical phase, with the Democratic Party finalising its ticket: Kamala Harris has selected Tim Walz, the Governor of Minnesota, as her running mate. Just as Harris’s entry introduced a new dynamic to the race following Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Walz’s selection as the vice-presidential candidate has introduced fresh calculations regarding Harris’s electability in November.

Harris initially considered three key candidates for the position: Josh Shapiro, the Governor of Pennsylvania; Mark Kelly, a Senator from Arizona; and Walz. In the days leading up to Harris’s decision, Kelly appeared to fall behind, leaving a close contest between Walz and Shapiro. Shapiro was a strong contender for several reasons. Pennsylvania is the most crucial swing state in the US, pivotal in determining the outcome of presidential elections, alongside Michigan and Wisconsin.
Given the razor-thin margins separating Democrats and Republicans in the Senate and House of Representatives, winning Pennsylvania could be decisive in the upcoming election. However, Harris ultimately chose Walz, potentially placing Democratic calculations regarding Pennsylvania on the back burner in favour of new strategic considerations.
Walz’s sudden rise to the nomination came through a series of online videos that resonated with netizens due to their cultural connection to Midwestern values in the US—depicting him as a good-natured, helpful dad with clear boundaries. Walz’s 12 years of experience in Congress, his tenure as a second-term Governor, and his appeal as a white Midwestern male are expected to shift the poll balance in favour of the Democrats.
He secured a Democratic victory in a conservative district in Minnesota two years ago. Walz, 60, is a former school teacher and has served in the Army National Guard, adding to his appeal as a regular person who can connect with the masses.
Harris has chosen Walz for several strategic reasons. He emphasises his upbringing in a town of just 400 people, leveraging his small-town roots to counter JD Vance’s similar narrative. Walz has attacked his opponent Vance for his education at Yale University, an elite institution, and for writing a bestseller – Hillbilly Elegy. Politically, Walz could help reverse the growing Republican support in rural America, which has been fuelled by concerns over immigration and demographic changes. The Democrats are banking on Walz to counter rural polarisation in the US.
In his home state of Minnesota, Walz faces significant polarisation and entrenched Republican opposition, particularly due to his shift from campaigning as a moderate to governing as a progressive. This paradox is central to Walz’s political identity.
Although a gun owner himself, he has shifted toward advocating for gun control in recent years. His support was declined by the National Rifle Association (NRA) due to his advocacy for more stringent background checks, opposition to concealed carry legislation in Congress, and resistance to easing restrictions on gun silencers.
Despite these positions, Walz is not seen as a typical Democrat and is perceived as more adaptable. His vote in favour of the Keystone XL pipeline—a project to produce thousands of barrels per day in the US, which the Biden administration later cancelled—is a prime example of that. As a white male, Walz also brings racial balance to Harris’s campaign. While Harris is expected to attract Black voters, women, and youth, Walz could help sway white, male, and Midwestern voters.
Within the Democratic Party, there may have been stronger consensus around Shapiro, given Pennsylvania’s critical importance to the Democrats and Shapiro’s extremely favourable polling in the state. Shapiro’s Jewish identity would likely have influenced the polls, especially considering the intense political divisions within US political parties and the broader civil society.
However, Shapiro’s political views, particularly his stance on the war in Gaza and his criticism of campus protests supporting Palestine had sparked backlash within the Democratic Party, making him a high-risk candidate.
In contrast, by selecting Walz, the Democratic Party has taken a different risk: Advancing a progressive agenda that Republicans might cast as antisemitic, potentially pushing more Jewish voters toward the GOP. Walz has never been scrutinised on a national level, and Republicans are likely to attack his past record. His military service is already under scrutiny, with Vance criticising Walz’s decision to leave his 24-year military career to run for public office just seven months before his unit was deployed to Iraq. While Walz’s decision may have been coincidental, Vance, who served in Iraq, has used it to portray Walz as neglecting his national duty.
Additionally, Walz’s delayed decision to deploy the National Guard during the riots in Minneapolis following George Floyd’s murder in May 2020 is another point Republicans might use to question his leadership abilities.
Furthermore, Walz’s progressive stance on issues such as abortion as a “fundamental right,” the legalisation of recreational marijuana, and support for LGBTQ+ rights sharply contrasts with the Republican agenda. Trump has labelled Walz a “dangerously liberal extremist.” These stark differences are likely to intensify the election campaign as November approaches.
While the internet buzz surrounding Walz’s selection may have created some initial excitement, his past decisions, his limited appeal beyond the Midwest, and his progressive agenda, combined with Harris’s own left-leaning positions, could ultimately benefit the Republicans. It is not surprising, therefore, that Harris appears to be moderating her views on highly divisive issues, such as the war in Gaza and her administration’s policies toward supporting Israel. It remains to be seen whether the Trump-Vance campaign will use this as an opportunity to gain grounds.
Vivek Mishra is fellow, ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. The views expressed are personal

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